1/6 – Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.95) reaching 2,413 new cases and no death daily by Dec 05, if incidence continues at same rate.
Cantonal forecasts: Nov 30 – Dec 05.
➡️tinyurl.com/COVIDswitz⬅️
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/6 – 16 Cantons are [slowly] landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
[Basel-Landschaft (R-eff=0.92), no mort.]
[Zug=0.90, no mort.]
Uri=0.88, no mort.
Nidwalden=0.85, no mort.
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3/6 – 10 Cantons are either rising/increasing or (plateauing) in #COVID19 epidemic activity, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
Obwalden (R-eff=1.14), no mort.
Vaud=1.06, no mort.
(Genève=1.04, no mort.)
(Neuchâtel=0.99, no mort.)
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4/6 – Forecasted by Dec 05:
>300 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Ticino
>200 in Genève, Vaud, Solothurn, Obwalden, Neuchâtel, Fribourg, Basel S
>100 in Bern, Basel L, Schaffhausen, Zug, Zürich, Aargau, Luzern, Jura, Grisons
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5/6 – Forecasted by Dec 05:
>100 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Glarus, Schwyz, Nidwalden, Thurgau
>50 in St Gallen, Valais, App A
<50 in App I, Uri
Highest R-eff in OW (1.14)
Lowest R-eff in AR (0.82)
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6/6 – People with at least 1 dose: 69.75% by Nov 28
<60% in App I
65-70% in Aargau, Fribourg, Jura, Luzern, Nidwalden, Schaffhausen, Uri, Valais, Zug
>70% in Basel L, Basel S, Bern, Genève, Grisons, Neuchâtel, Solothurn, Ticino, Vaud, Zürich
covid19.admin.ch/en/vaccinat…
10:15 AM · Nov 30, 2022
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7/6 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@FLAHAULT
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
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