1/6 – Switzerland is plateauing in #COVID19 epidemic activity (R-eff=0.97) reaching 2,457 new cases and 2 deaths daily by Dec 12, if incidence continues at the same rate.
Cantonal forecasts: Dec 07 – Dec 12.
➡️tinyurl.com/COVIDswitz⬅️
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/6 – 12 Cantons are [slowly] landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
[Zürich (R-eff=0.95), no mort.]
[Grisons=0.90, no mort.]
Jura=0.83, no mort.
Bern=0.82, no mort.
11:38 AM · Dec 7, 2022
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3/6 – 14 Cantons are either rising/increasing or (plateauing) in #COVID19 epidemic activity, with no to high mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
Uri (R-eff=1.11), no mort.
Vaud=1.07, no mort.
Genève=1.06, high mort.
(Basel S=0.99, no mort.)
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4/6 – Forecasted by Dec 12:
>400 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Ticino
>300 in Genève, Vaud
>200 in Neuchâtel, Basel S, Solothurn, Schaffhausen, Fribourg
>100 in Basel L, Zürich, Aargau, Nidwalden, Zug, Thurgau, Glarus, Bern
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5/6 – Forecasted by Dec 12:
>100 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Valais, Grisons, Schwyz, Luzern
>50 in St Gallen, Jura, Uri
<50 in Obwalden, App A, App I
Highest R-eff in UR (1.11)
Lowest R-eff in OW (0.72)
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6/6 – People with at least 1 dose: 69.75% by Dec 04
<60% in App I
65-70% in Aargau, Fribourg, Jura, Luzern, Nidwalden, Schaffhausen, Uri, Valais, Zug
>70% in Basel L, Basel S, Bern, Genève, Grisons, Neuchâtel, Solothurn, Ticino, Vaud, Zürich
covid19.admin.ch/en/vaccinat…
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7/6 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@FLAHAULT
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
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