1/7 – Switzerland is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.93) reaching 1,950 new cases and one death daily by Dec 19, if incidence continues at same rate.
Cantonal forecasts: Dec 14 – Dec 19.
➡️tinyurl.com/COVIDswitz⬅️
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
1
2
0
4
2/7 – 1 Canton will remain in its #COVID19 safety zone, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days:
Uri (27.51 new cases/100K pop/7 days)
1
1
0
1
3/7 – 18 Cantons are [slowly] landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with no to medium mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
[Neuchâtel (R-eff=0.95), no mort.]
[Valais=0.94, medium mort.]
Thurgau=0.89, no mort.
Zug=0.76, no mort.
10:25 AM · Dec 14, 2022
1
1
0
1
4/7 – 7 Cantons are either rising or (plateauing) in #COVID19 epidemic activity, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
Appenzell Innerrhoden (R-eff=1.12), no mort.
Schaffhausen=1.10, no mort.
(Jura=1.00, no mort.)
(Ticino=0.99, no mort.)
1
1
0
1
5/7 – Forecasted by Dec 19:
>300 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Ticino
>200 in Schaffhausen, Vaud, Basel S, Genève, Neuchâtel
>100 in Solothurn, Basel L, Aargau, Bern, Zürich, Jura, Glarus, Fribourg, Schwyz, Valais
1
1
0
1
6/7 – Forecasted by Dec 19:
>50 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Thurgau, St Gallen, Luzern, App I, Zug, Grisons
<50 in Nidwalden, Obwalden, App A, Uri
Highest R-eff in AI (1.12)
Lowest R-eff in GR (0.75)
1
1
0
1
7/7 – People with at least 1 dose: 69.75% by Dec 12
<60% in App I
65-70% in Aargau, Fribourg, Jura, Luzern, Nidwalden, Schaffhausen, Uri, Valais, Zug
>70% in Basel L, Basel S, Bern, Genève, Grisons, Neuchâtel, Solothurn, Ticino, Vaud, Zürich
covid19.admin.ch/en/vaccinat…
1
1
0
1
8/7 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@FLAHAULT
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
1
0
0
0