1/7 – Switzerland is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.88) reaching 1,451 new cases and no death daily by Dec 26, if incidence continues at the same rate.
Cantonal forecasts: Dec 21 – Dec 26.
➡️tinyurl.com/COVIDswitz⬅️
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
10:25 AM · Dec 21, 2022
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2/7 – 2 Cantons will remain in their #COVID19 safety zones, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days:
Uri (16.45 new cases/100K pop/7 days)
Nidwalden (15.89 new cases/100K pop/7 days)
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3/7 – 19 Cantons are [slowly] landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
[Grisons (R-eff=0.94), no mort.]
[Luzern=0.90, no mort.]
Ticino=0.87, no mort.
Jura=0.75, no mort.
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4/7 – 5 Cantons are either rising or (plateauing) in #COVID19 epidemic activity, with no mortality, for 7 more days.
e.g.:
Obwalden (R-eff=1.15), no mort.
(Basel L=0.98, no mort.)
(Valais=0.98, no mort.)
(Basel S=0.96, no mort.)
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5/7 – Forecasted by Dec 26:
>200 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Ticino, Basel S, Vaud
>100 in Basel L, Neuchâtel, Solothurn, Genève, Zürich, Valais, Thurgau
>50 in Aargau, Obwalden, Grisons, Schaffhausen, Fribourg, Schwyz, Bern, Luzern, Glarus
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6/7 – Forecasted by Dec 26:
>50 #COVID19 cases/100K pop/week in Zug, App I
<50 in St Gallen, App A, Jura, Uri, Nidwalden
Highest R-eff in OW (1.15)
Lowest R-eff in JU (0.75)
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7/7 – People with at least 1 dose: 69.75% by Dec 19
<60% in App I
65-70% in Aargau, Fribourg, Jura, Luzern, Nidwalden, Schaffhausen, Uri, Valais, Zug
>70% in Basel L, Basel S, Bern, Genève, Grisons, Neuchâtel, Solothurn, Ticino, Vaud, Zürich
covid19.admin.ch/en/vaccinat…
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8/7 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@FLAHAULT
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
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