1/9 – Aug 04 to Aug 10 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"! Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavir… Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/9 – Western Europe Improvement all over the sub-continent in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with remaining medium to [high] mortality. - Plateau in [SE (R-eff=1.0)]; - Landing in DE; SP; AU; DK; CH; ICL; PT; FR; IRL; BE; NL; [UK; IT; LUX].
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3/9 – East-Central Europe - Surge/rise in #COVID19 epid activ: Russia (R-eff=1.26); Hung=1.23/ Serb=1.17; Pol=1.14;Lith=1.12; Rom=1.11; - Increase/plateau in Latv=1.07; Bulg=1.05/ Cz=0.99; Slovk=1.01; Croat=0.96; Slovn=1.01; Greece=0.97; Alb=0.91; - Very low to high mortality.

10:25 AM · Aug 4, 2022

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4/9 – Africa - Green everywhere regarding its #COVID19 epidemic activity, but high level of underreporting.
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5/9 – Middle-East - Rise/increase in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Jordan (R-eff=1.11)/Iran=1.09; - (Slow) landing in (Lebanon=0.94;Qatar=0.93; UAE=0.92); Israel; Iraq; Cyprus; - Reported as safe elsewhere.
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6/9 – Asia & Pacific - Rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Japan (R-eff=1.16)/ SK=1.13, medium/low mortality; - Plateauing/landing in Taiwan=0.96; Malaysia=1.01/ New Zealand, medium/very high mortality; - Slow landing in Australia=0.91, high mortality.
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7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd) - Most cities across China order on #COVID19 lockdowns (R-eff=1.05); - Surge in Mongolia=1.23; - Plateauing in India=0.98; - Worrying (lack of) news from North Korea - Apparently safe elsewhere.
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8/9 – North America - Canada (R-eff=0.96) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, low mortality. 87.7% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces. - USA=0.92 is slowly landing, with medium mort. 79.4% >1 dose. Red everywhere, but orange in 5 states, green in Nevada.
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9/9 – Latin America - Rise in its #COVID19 epidemic activity in Argentina (R-eff=1.13); - Plateau/landing in Bolivia=1.04; Chile=1.04/ Belize; Mexico; Brazil; Peru; - Very low to medium mortality.
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10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
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11/9 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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