1/4 – France (R-eff=0.71) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with medium mortality. 81.4%> 1 dose. 15,052 cases and 63 deaths/day to be reported by Aug 11, if at same pace. Regional forecast for Aug 05 to Aug 08: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance By:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/4 – Seven mainland Régions are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with remaining medium levels of mortality: Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=0.65); Corse=0.85; Grand-Est=0.74; Hauts-de-France=0.70; Ile-de-France=0.62; Occitanie=0.69; PACA=0.76.
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3/4 – Six mainland Régions are landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, with low levels of mortality: AURA (R-eff=0.69); Bretagne=0.66; Centre-Val-de-Loire=0.65; Normandie=0.66; Nouvelle-Aquitaine=0.69; Pays-de-la-Loire=0.66.
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4/4 – Overseas Régions: - Rise/plateau in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Mayotte (R-eff=1.12)/[La Réunion=1.04], with no or [medium] mortality. - Landing in Guyane/Guadeloupe [Martinique], low/medium [high] mortality.

4:03 PM · Aug 5, 2022

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5/4 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
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6/4 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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