1/4 – France (R-eff=1.18) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality. 50,176 cases and 28 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 04, if at same pace. Regional forecast for Sep 28 to Oct 01: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

8:53 AM · Sep 28, 2022

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2/4 – Four mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality: AURA (R-eff=1.20); Grand-Est=1.21; Hauts-de-France=1.20; Ile-de-France=1.22;
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3/4 – Nine mainland Régions are either (increasing) or rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality: Bourg-Fr-Comté (R-eff=1.18); Bretag=1.14; Ctre-Val-Loire=1.18; (Corse=1.06); Normand=1.17; Nouv-Aquit=1.13; (Occitanie=1.09); P-de-L=1.19; PACA=1.11.
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4/4 – Overseas Régions: - (Quickly) landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone in (La Réunion (R-eff=0.51)); Guadeloupe=0.86, with low mortality. - Plateauing in Martinique=0.97, with low mortality. - Safe in Mayotte; Guyane.
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5/4 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
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6/4 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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