1/4 – France (R-eff=1.18) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality.
50,176 cases and 28 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 04, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Sep 28 to Oct 01:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/4 – Four mainland Régions are surging in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.20);
Grand-Est=1.21;
Hauts-de-France=1.20;
Ile-de-France=1.22;
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3/4 – Nine mainland Régions are either (increasing) or rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality:
Bourg-Fr-Comté (R-eff=1.18);
Bretag=1.14;
Ctre-Val-Loire=1.18;
(Corse=1.06);
Normand=1.17;
Nouv-Aquit=1.13;
(Occitanie=1.09);
P-de-L=1.19;
PACA=1.11.
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4/4 – Overseas Régions:
- (Quickly) landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone in (La Réunion (R-eff=0.51)); Guadeloupe=0.86, with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Martinique=0.97, with low mortality.
- Safe in Mayotte; Guyane.
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5/4 – Read forecasting for other countries by following
@AdelineDugerdil
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
8:54 AM · Sep 28, 2022
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