1/4 – France (R-eff=1.17) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, plateauing at low mortality. 51,001 cases and 32 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 05, if at same pace. Regional forecast for Sep 29 to Oct 02: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

1:01 PM · Sep 29, 2022

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2/4 – Ten mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality: AURA (R-eff=1.19); Bourg-Fr-Comté=1.18; Bretag=1.13; Ctre-Val-Loire=1.17; Grand-Est=1.19; Hauts-de-France=1.19; Ile-de-France=1.19. Normand=1.16; Nouv-Aquit=1.12; P-de-L=1.17.
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3/4 – Three mainland Régions are increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low levels of mortality: Corse (R-eff=1.06); Occitanie=1.09; PACA=1.09.
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4/4 – Overseas Régions: - (Quickly) landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone in (La Réunion (R-eff=0.44)); Guadeloupe=0.87, with low mortality. - Plateauing in Martinique=0.96, with medium mortality. - Safe in Mayotte; Guyane.
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5/4 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
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6/4 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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I remember when 20 000 cases by day was shocking for the French people. Now 50 000 cases are the "new normal". The world is changing fast ! Thanks for those data.
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