1/9 – Sep 29 to Oct 05 – "Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"! Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavir… Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
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2/9 – Western Europe A new wave of #COVID19 is accelerating, low mortality: - Surge in LUX (R-eff=1.47); AU=1.25; DE=1.23; - Rise in FL=1.19; FR=1.17; DK=1.16; IT=1.15;UK=1.12; GR=1.12; - Increase in FL=1.08; SP=CH=1.07; BE=1.06; IRL=1.05; - Plateau in PT=1.01;ICL=1.01.

6:41 PM · Sep 29, 2022

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3/9 – East-Central Europe - Surge in its #COVID19 epidemic activity in Slovakia (R-eff=1.29) Increase in CZ=1.07; Latv=1.07; Plateau/slow decrease in Slovn=1.04; Croat=1.0; Ukr=0.97; Hung=0.96/ Russia=0.93; Lith=0.93; Pol=0.92.
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4/9 – Africa - Green everywhere regarding its #COVID19 epidemic activity, but high level of underreporting.
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5/9 – Middle-East - Plateau in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Cyprus (R-eff=1.04) and Qatar=1.04; - Landing in Israel; - Reported as safe elsewhere.
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6/9 – Asia & Pacific - Plateauing/increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity in Taiwan (R-ef=1.01); Malaysia=0.98;/Singapore=1.09, with medium/low mortality; - Landing in Australia; Japan; South Korea; New Zealand, with low mortality.
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7/9 – Asia & Pacific (cont'd) - Landing in China, which still struggles with its #ZeroCovid strategy, increase in mortality; - Lack of news from North Korea; - Apparently safe elsewhere.
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8/9 – North America - Canada (R-eff=1.03) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, med mortality. 88.9% >1 dose. Poor quality reporting from Provinces. - USA=0.92 slowly landing, with medium mort. 80.1% >1 dose. Red in 25 states, orange in 20 and green in 5.
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9/9 – Latin America - Plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality, in Costa-Rica (R-eff=1.04); Uruguay=0.96; Chile=0.97; however reporting is irregular. - Reported as safe everywhere.
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10/9 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
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11/9 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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Note: the effective reproduction rate in Finland (FL) is 1.19 (not 1.08, which was its value one week ago).
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